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Increasing Medicare Enrollment Continues to Reduce the Commercially Insured Population

The U.S. birth rate has been declining for over a decade (-15.1% from 2007 to 2022. The birth rate rebounded slightly in 2021 but fell again in 2022, signaling a return to previously observed trends where the number of births is not offsetting those aging into Medicare.

Projected births are insufficient to offset the accelerating Medicare enrollment from the Baby Boomers, leading to inevitable decline in the commercially insured population.

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