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What are the recent and forecasted trends in prescription drug spending?

The cost of retail prescription drugs has become a top health policy issue for consumers and policymakers. KFF polling from July 2023 found that more than 1 in 4 adults taking prescription drugs report difficulty affording their medication, including 40% of those with household income of less than $40,000 per year.   

In this chart collection, we use 2021 National Health Expenditures Accounts (NHEA) historical and projection data to look at trends in retail prescription drug spending and use. Retail prescription drugs do not include drugs that are physician-administered in hospitals, physician offices, outpatient centers, long term care facilities, and at home. Trends in physician-administered drug spending may differ from trends in spending on retail prescription drugs. 

Annual change in per capita retail prescription drug spending, 1970 - 2021; projected 2022 - 2031
Growth in retail prescription drug spending per capita accelerated in 2021, and is expected to moderate in next decade

Note: Total Health (Actual) and Total Health (Projected) represents average growth within decade.

Source: KFF analysis of National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA)

Following a slight decrease in 2020, per capita retail prescription drug spending increased in 2021Spending growth in this category was fairly modest throughout the 2010s, with the exception of a period between 2013-2015 when two high-cost specialty Hepatitis C drugs came to market. Looking ahead, NHEA projections suggest growth in per capita drug spending is expected to be moderate through 2031. 

Nominal and inflation-adjusted per capita spending on retail prescription drugs, 1960-2021
Spending on retail prescription drugs has risen rapidly over the past three decades
Per capita out-of-pocket health spending on hospitals, physicians and clinics, and retail prescription drugs, 2000 – 2021; projected 2022 – 2031
Out-of-pocket spending for retail prescription drugs, hospitals, and physician services increased slightly in 2021
Share of adults that say the cost of prescription drugs is unreasonable or that affording prescription drugs is very or somewhat easy
Majority of adults say the cost of prescription drugs is unreasonable
Annual percent change in price and quantity indexes of prescription drugs, 1990-2022, index 2012=100
Growth in price and utilization of pharmaceuticals has varied over time
Average price of Harvoni, Humira, and Enbrel, 2017
The average prices of Harvoni, Humira, and Enbrel are higher in the U.S. than in Switzerland and the United Kingdom

Note: Data for United States represents point-of-sale prices and do not account for manufacturer rebates. Data from Switzerland and the United Kingdom represent average private sector costs.

Source: IFHP 2017 Comparative Price Report 

 

Retail drugs as a share of national health spending and as a share of fully-insured private health plan premiums, 2021
Retail prescription drugs account for a significant share of health spending for privately insured

Data for United States represents point-of-sale prices and do not account for manufacturer rebates.

Source: KFF analysis of CMS NHEA and Mark Farrah data

Distribution of total national health expenditures on retail prescription drugs, by payer, 2005, 2006 and 2021
Medicare has become a major payer for retail prescription drugs

Note: Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage was implemented in 2006

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group

 

Total out-of-pocket retail prescription drug spending, projections before & after passage of the Inflation Reduction Act
The Inflation Reduction Act has led to a shift in projected out-of-pocket prescription drug spending

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